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My picks overall were just OK last week, and they were really bad when it came to my CBSSports.com Expert Picks. I went a miserable 4-9, but I went 9-4 straight up and 3-2 with my Best Bets as part of the Pick Six podcast.
That raises my season records to 46-33-4 with my Best Bets, which I will take, 126-81-1 with my straight-up picks and a terrible 96-104-8 with my ATS picks.
Picking the entire slate for the ATS picks has beaten me up this year. I just can’t get into a groove. I had a good Week 13 and then Week 14 went to hell. That changes this week.
Winners are coming.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
The Seahawks defense has fallen apart in recent weeks as they head to this key division game. The 49ers beat them earlier this season with Jimmy Garoppolo, and they should do it again here with Brock Purdy. He played well last week in his starting debut and I think he will be fine here as well. 49ers take it.
Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 21
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Colts are coming off a bye, while the Vikings are coming off a road loss. The Colts offense has struggled in a big way this season, but the Minnesota defense has as well. But I give the Minnesota front an edge over the Colts offensive line. Look for the Vikings to bounce back here as the defense plays better.
Pick: Vikings 28, Colts 14
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Ravens won’t have Lamar Jackson, but will they have Tyler Huntley, who suffered a concussion last week? Or will it be rookie Anthony Brown? The Browns are done, so this is a pride game. Deshaun Watson hasn’t been that good, which is a concern. The Ravens are playing consecutive road game, which is tough. They will win it behind their defense, but it’s close.
Pick: Ravens 23, Browns 22
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Dolphins have lost two straight and they are now playing a third straight road game. That’s brutal. The Bills lost to Miami in the first meeting, even though they dominated. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled the past two weeks and the conditions are supposed to be tough in this one. The Bills will win it as they play good defense and Josh Allen does his part.
Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Both these teams are coming off a bye, and both are alive In the playoff chase — but barely. The Falcons are making a quarterback change, going to rookie Demond Ridder. This is a tough place to make that debut since these two teams don’t like each other and it’s a tough place to play. The Saints will win this one behind their defense and ruin Ridder’s first start.
Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Panthers can get to the playoffs by winning out, starting in this one. Carolina is leaning on the defense and the running game on offense to win games. The Steelers might be without Kenny Pickett in this one (concussion), but even if he plays it won’t matter. Carolina’s run game will win this game.
Pick: Panthers 23, Steelers 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Bears are coming off a bye, while the Eagles are playing a second straight road game. So what. It won’t matter in this one. The Eagles offense is rolling and it will against Chicago. Look for Jalen Hurts to continue his MVP push with another big day as Justin Fields won’t be able to keep up.
Pick: Eagles 33, Bears 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans played well in losing a close one to the Cowboys last week, while the Chiefs looked off in a tight victory over the Broncos. The Chiefs are also playing consecutive road games, but it won’t matter. They get it going on both sides here. Blowout as Patrick Mahomes plays well.
Pick: Chiefs 33, Texans 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Jaguars are alive in the playoff race, while Dallas is trying to track down the Eagles in their division. Jacksonville is coming off an explosive offensive showing at Tennessee behind Trevor Lawrence. But this is a much tougher challenge. The Cowboys offense will put up points here against a bad Jacksonville defense. Look for a lot of points, but Dallas is the better team.
Pick: Cowboys 34, Jaguars 28
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a big game. Yes, it’s a big game. The Lions have won five of six to get into the playoff race. The Jets are coming off a second straight loss with Mike White at quarterback. He has played well, but this game will be about the Lions offense against the Jets defense. I think the Lions get the best of it.
Pick: Lions 25, Jets 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
Kyler Murray is done for the season with a torn ACL, which means Colt McCoy starts for the Cardinals in this game between two disappointing teams. Russell Wilson suffered a concussion last week, so his status is up in the air. It could be Brett Rypien at quarterback. Rypien vs. McCoy. Oh, boy. The Broncos have the better defense, so that’s what will win this game for them.
Pick: Broncos 20, Cardinals 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, FuboTV)
The Patriots beat the Cardinals with an impressive second half Monday night, while the Raiders are coming off a horrible loss to the Rams last Thursday. The Patriots are staying in Arizona for the week, which will help the travel issues. Mac Jones showed some life against the Cardinals and I think he will here as well. The Patriots win it.
Pick: Patriots 30, Raiders 27
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a long trip for a Titans team that has lost three straight. The Chargers are coming off an impressive victory over Miami. Trevor Lawrence carved up the Titans last week and this week it’s Justin Herbert. The Chargers win it behind a big passing day.
Pick: Chargers 31, Titans 20
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Bengals have some big injuries heading into this one, but Tampa Bay has appeared lifeless on offense for much of the past month. The Bengals defense has made a big improvement in that time. That’s a problem for Tom Brady. Joe Burrow will get the best of him.
Pick: Bengals 27, Bucs 20
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, FuboTV)
The Commanders get the schedule break here as they come off the bye, while the Giants come off a bad loss to the Eagles. These two tied two weeks ago in New York, but this time the Commanders will win it behind their run game and defense. The Giants are reeling.
Pick: Commanders 23, Giants 17
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, FuboTV)
Baker Mayfield was impressive in his Rams debut, but now he has to go on the road to play the Packers. He should know the offense better, which will help. But this is a game for Aaron Rodgers to keep his team alive in the playoff chase. Packers take it.
Pick: Packers 28, Rams 17
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